Case summary

Most significant events are connected to the number 23, directly or through some simple transformation of it.

Verdict: False

A demonstration of pattern-seeking, which its chief promoter admitted. Any small number produces the same haul once you start counting.

William S. Burroughs began collecting coincidences involving 23 after a sea captain he knew in Tangier around 1960 boasted of 23 accident-free years, lost his ship the same day, and was followed on the evening news by a Flight 23 crash under another Captain Clark. Robert Anton Wilson picked up the habit in 1965, wrote it into the Illuminatus! trilogy and a 1977 Fortean Times article, and tied it to the Discordian Law of Fives. Wilson himself said the enigma shows how the mind finds whatever it looks for.

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Robert Anton Wilson speaking at Phenomicon in 1991

Photo: frankenstoen, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons Source

The 23 enigma is the belief that an improbable number of events, names, dates and measurements turn out to involve the number 23. It is not an ancient tradition. It can be traced to two American writers, one of whom started counting and one of whom turned the counting into a philosophy.

What happened

The origin story was set down by Robert Anton Wilson in an article for the British magazine Fortean Times in 1977, fittingly in its twenty-third issue, and republished by the magazine after his death in 2007. Wilson said he first heard of the enigma from William S. Burroughs. In Tangier around 1960 Burroughs had known a Captain Clark who bragged that he had sailed for 23 years without an accident. That same day Clark’s ship was lost with everyone aboard. While Burroughs was turning this over in the evening, a radio bulletin reported an airliner crash in Florida; the pilot was another Captain Clark and the flight was number 23.

Burroughs began a scrapbook of 23s. Wilson joined in from 1965 and assembled the standard list: 23 chromosomes from each parent, telegraphers’ code in which 23 means a broken line, hexagram 23 of the I Ching, the gangster Dutch Schultz having a rival shot on 23rd Street at the age of 23 and dying himself on October 23. The enigma reached a wide audience through The Illuminatus! Trilogy, which Wilson wrote with Robert Shea and which appeared in 1975, where it is called the “23/17 phenomenon,” and through Wilson’s 1977 book Cosmic Trigger.

The Discordian connection

Wilson folded 23 into Discordianism, the parody religion set out in the Principia Discordia. That text’s Law of Fives holds that everything happens in fives, or in multiples or divisors of five, or is otherwise related to five, and adds that the law is never wrong. The same page records that one sect recognizes the “holy 23,” since two plus three make five. A memo quoted there makes the point that would later become the standard critique: the harder one looks for the Law of Fives, the more manifest it becomes.

The idea spread far beyond its origins. It supplied the premise of the 2007 film The Number 23, in which Jim Carrey plays a man who becomes convinced that a novel is describing his own life through the number, and it circulates in conspiracy culture alongside other numerical obsessions.

The explanations

No serious attempt has ever been made to show that 23 occurs more often than chance would predict, and it is hard to see how one could be. The claim is unfalsifiable by design: 23 counts, but so do 2 and 3 separately, their sum, their product, 32 reversed, any multiple of 23 and any date or time that contains it. Under those rules every number is special. The Skeptic’s Dictionary gives the general term for this habit, apophenia, defined as the spontaneous perception of connections and meaning in unrelated things, and notes that statisticians know it as a Type I error, a false positive.

Wilson did not disagree. He treated the enigma as a practical demonstration of confirmation bias, something readers could try at home: look for 23s for a week and see how many appear, then ask what that proves about the number and what it proves about the looker. His interest was in the mind’s hunger for pattern, and he was open that the Law of Fives and the 23 enigma were tools for showing that hunger at work rather than discoveries about the universe.

Where it stands

The Captain Clark anecdote cannot be verified; it survives only as Burroughs’s story retold by Wilson, with no ship, airline or date attached. The rest of the enigma does not depend on it. As a claim about the world the 23 enigma is false. As a lesson about how people find what they seek, it works exactly as its inventor intended, which is why it persists.

Case file

Verdict
Verdict: False
Status
Closed
Phenomenon
Number Patterns
Place
Tangier, Morocco
Site
Tangier (setting of the Captain Clark anecdote)
Coordinates
35.7595, -5.8340
Date
c. 1960
Witnesses
1 · William S. Burroughs (as related by Robert Anton Wilson)
Evidence
None
Case ID
UX-0036
Last updated

References

  1. Robert Anton Wilson on the 23 enigma David Pescovitz, Boing Boing, 2007-05-09 Website
  2. Principia Discordia, page 00023: The Law of Fives principiadiscordia.com Book
  3. apophenia Robert Todd Carroll, The Skeptic's Dictionary Website
  4. 23 enigma Wikipedia Website

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